Dear Agents, Agronomists, Growers and Friends,

After the period of warmer temperatures early this week, temperatures fall to below normal by mid week with temperatures remaining below normal until about April 9 when a warming trend is expected to begin and last through much of the remainder of April.

The longer range models continue to indicate that May and June will trend to see above normal temperatures with precipitation amounts being about average for the forecast region.

These are the forecast regions:

Region 1 – Richmond, VA

Region 2 – VA Beach, VA

Region 3 – Clayton, NC

Region 4 – Greenville, SC

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (4 Apr – 6 Apr) Temperatures start period warmer than normal but cool to below normal; brief period of showers early then mostly dry conditions all regions rest of period. Much cooler air moves into the forecast area behind a cold front as it pushes through the region from west to east very early in the period. There is a significant chance of overnight below freezing temperatures especially in regions 1 and 3 if overnight conditions are clear and calm. Conditions stay mostly dry with only a brief period of showers early in the period for Region 1. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.05 – 0.15” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (7 Apr – 9 Apr) Temperatures below normal all regions; widespread rain mid period. Expect a low pressure system to move through the forecast area by mid period. The flow around the low pressure system will bring in even colder air. Expect temperatures to be well below normal with the threat of below freezing temperatures especially in region 1. Expect the low pressure system to cause a period of widespread steady rain and even some snow in the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.30 – 0.60” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (10 Apr – 12 Apr) Temperatures warm to near normal; showers early mostly dry conditions all regions rest of period. Low pressure system moves through the forecast area early. Cold air looks to be trapped by the jet stream in the northern states during this period allowing temperature to warm to near normal of the season., Expect showers and some widely scattered thunderstorms early. Precipitation amounts will likely be in 0.10 – 0.20” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (13 Apr – 15 Apr) Temperatures remain near normal; scattered showers and thunderstorms mid period. Expect a series of low pressure systems to move north of the forecast area through the period. This will keep high temperatures near normal, but expect low temperatures slightly below normal. During mid-period expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.10 – 0.20” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 16 Apr – 29 Apr

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 16 Apr – 29 Apr

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:   (16 Apr – 22 Apr Mar) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (23 Apr – 29 Apr) Early indications are that temperatures will be near to slightly below the seasonal average and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

April Outlook:   April outlook is for warmer and drier than normal conditions for the forecast region.

May Outlook: It looks like May will continue the above normal temperature trends, but May will tend to be wetter with precipitation amounts being about average for the forecast region.